{"id":230870,"date":"2024-11-15T21:01:46","date_gmt":"2024-11-15T14:01:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nawacita.co\/?p=230870"},"modified":"2024-11-15T21:01:47","modified_gmt":"2024-11-15T14:01:47","slug":"risma-mengejar-khofifah-di-survey-polbrain-tanda-pilgub-jatim-masih-dinamis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nawacita.co\/index.php\/2024\/11\/15\/risma-mengejar-khofifah-di-survey-polbrain-tanda-pilgub-jatim-masih-dinamis\/","title":{"rendered":"Risma Mengejar Khofifah di Survey Polbrain Tanda Pilgub Jatim Masih Dinamis"},"content":{"rendered":"

Elektabilitas 35% Risma Mengejar Khofifah 49%<\/h1>\n

SURABAYA, Nawacita<\/a><\/strong> – Pengamat politik yang juga Direktur Eksekutif Lembaga Riset Politik \u201cPolbrain\u201d, Airlangga Pribadi Kusman, menyebut Pilkada Jatim masih akan berlangsung dinamis sampai hari pencoblosan pada 27 November 2024. Preferensi masyarakat telah mengerucut pada dua dari tiga kandidat, yaitu Khofifah Indar Parawansa-Emil Dardak dan Tri Rismaharini-KH Zahrul Azhar Asumta (Gus Hans).<\/p>\n

\u201cKami melihat situasi Pilkada Jatim masih dinamis, bahkan sampai hari H nanti. Meski demikian, harus diakui fokus publik sudah mengerucut pada dua pasangan calon, yaitu Khofifah-Emil dan Risma-Gus Hans. Keduanya akan saling berebut pemilih yang belum menentukan serta pemilih masing-masing kubu yang masih bisa berubah,\u201d ujar Airlangga kepada media, Jumat (15\/11\/2024).<\/p>\n

Dalam survei Polbrain, elektabilitas Khofifah-Emil mencapai 49,3 persen, ditempel oleh Risma-Gus Hans dengen tingkat keterpilihan 35,2 persen. Adapun duet Luluk Nurhamidah- Lukmanul Khakim ada di angka 5,3 persen. Sebanyak 10,2 persen responden menyatakan belum menentukan pilihan (Undecided Voters).<\/p>\n

Airlangga menilai kontestasi Pilkada Jatim hanya mengerucut pada Khofifah-Emil dan pasangan Risma-Gus Hans. Bila dijumlah, kedua pasangan tersebut sudah meraup lebih dari 85 persen suara. \u201cDi sisa waktu yang ada saat ini, baik Khofifah-Emil maupun Risma-Gus Hans harus memacu diri pada lap terakhir untuk bisa mengunci kemenangan,\u201d jelas Airlangga.<\/p>\n

Dia menganalisis, terdapat tiga faktor yang bisa menentukan hasil Pilkada Jatim. Pertama, suara publik yang belum menentukan pilihan, yang berkisar 10 persen. Kandidat yang bisa meraih suara ini akan cukup mampu meningktkan elektabilitasnya.<\/p>\n

\"Indar<\/a>
Khofifah Indar Parawansa<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Kedua, lanjut Airlangga, pemilih yang sudah menentukan pilihan tetapi masih menyatakan bisa mengubah pilihan. Berdasarkan survei, ada 44,3 persen pemilih yang menyatakan bahwa pilihannya saat ini masih mungkin berubah ketika Pilkada berlangsung 27 November 2024. \u201cCeruk pasar inilah yang akan menjadi penentu utama, medan pertempuran paling penting, bagi Risma-Gus Hans dan Khofifah-Emil. Artinya situasi bisa berubah signifikan bila swing voters ini bisa digaet,\u201d jelasnya.<\/p>\n

Adapun faktor ketiga, papar Airlangga, adalah sejauh mana duet Luluk-Lukman manpu mengoptimalkan basis suara mereka, yaitu kalangan Nahdliyin. Airlangga menyebut pasar utama Luluk dan Khofifah beririsan kuat. Semakin Luluk bisa mengoptimalkan jaringan suara Nahdliyin dan PKB, tentu berpotensi akan menggerus suara Khofifah.<\/p>\n

\"Nur<\/a>
Luluk Nur Hamidah<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cArtinya masih ada cukup waktu, baik Risma-Gus Hans maupun Khofifah-Emil untuk menentukan hasil akhir, apakah Risma-Gus Hans mampu menyalip di lap terakhir, atau Khofifah-Emil memperkokoh posisinya,\u201d tuturnya.<\/p>\n

Sebagai informasi, survei Polbrain dilakukan pada 18-23 Oktober 2024 terhadap 1.000 responden yang tersebar secara proporsional di 38 kabupaten\/kota di Jawa Timur. bdo<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Elektabilitas 35% Risma Mengejar Khofifah 49% SURABAYA, Nawacita – Pengamat politik yang juga Direktur Eksekutif Lembaga Riset Politik \u201cPolbrain\u201d, Airlangga Pribadi Kusman, menyebut Pilkada Jatim masih akan berlangsung dinamis sampai hari pencoblosan pada 27 November 2024. Preferensi masyarakat telah mengerucut pada dua dari tiga kandidat, yaitu Khofifah Indar Parawansa-Emil Dardak dan Tri Rismaharini-KH Zahrul Azhar […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":230867,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[29694],"tags":[130,86209,140],"class_list":{"0":"post-230870","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jatim","8":"tag-khofifah","9":"tag-pilkadajatim2024","10":"tag-risma"},"yoast_head":"\nRisma Mengejar Khofifah di Survey Polbrain Tanda Pilgub Jatim Masih Dinamis - Nawacita<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"SURABAYA, Nawacita - Pengamat politik yang juga Direktur Eksekutif Lembaga Riset Politik \u201cPolbrain\u201d, Airlangga Pribadi Kusman, menyebut Pilkada\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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